Response to Baratgin et al.: Mental Models Integrate Probability and Deduction.

Reasoning Strategies for Diagnostic Probability Estimates in Causal Contexts: Preference for Defeasible Deduction over Abduction

Recently, Meder, Mayrhofer, and Waldmann [1,2] have proposed a model of causal diagnostic reasoning that predicts an interference of the predictive probability, Pr(Effect |Cause), in estimating the diagnostic probability, Pr(Cause |Effect), specifically, that the interference leads to an underestimation bias of the diagnostic probability. The objective of the experiment reported in the present ...

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradig...

Evaluation of Price Setting Models in Iran’s Economy (DSGE Approach)

 Despite the consensus on the importance of nominal rigidities, there is no general agreement among monetary economists regarding the most appropriate and consistent pricing model that must be used to assess the effects of monetary policies in the economy. Due to the lack of empirical evidence with relation to the pricing behavior of Iranian firms, there is no general agreement on how to introd...

Evaluation of the performance of the CMIP5 General Circulation Models in predicting the Indian Ocean Monsoon precipitation over south Sistan and Baluchestan, using the past hydrological changes in the region

1-Introduction Climate change refers to any significant change in the existing mean climatic conditions within a certain time period (Jana and Majumder, 2010; Giorgi, 2006). Earth's climate change through history has happened (Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Bytnerowicz et al., 2007). 2-Materials and methods In this study, daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) tempera...

The New Paradigm and Mental Models.